Affordability & Pricing Engine (APE) — MSD Thailand & Philippines

Asset & Indication Setup

ACUTE HIGH-COST

Asset & Indication Guide Pick guidance preset or type custom

Asset Label

Prevalent Pool (N)

Diagnosed % 48%

Eligible % 75%

Severity / Line Guide Select guide or set custom

Pool Share: %

Planning Horizon 5 Years

Custom: yrs

Behavioural Overlays

Apply WTU Gate (Willingness to Utilise) Apply HCP WTR (Gabor-Granger) Apply Public Reimbursement / Formulary Switch

Annual Cost of Therapy Schedule

Specify annual list price in local currency (THB). Edit each year directly or use quick presets.

Flexible Patient Program (FPP) Guide Pick structure to customize

Funding Source Stack & Depletion Dynamics

Household funding pools walk in order of depletion. Replenishing sources (income) reset annually; non-replenishing sources decay.

Active	Funding Source	Dynamics	Depletion Order	MIE Ceiling %	Base WTU %	Liquidity / Mob %	Evidence Provenance

Dynamic Pipeline: All stages below are auto-calculated live. Any upstream change updates every downstream cohort.

Recheck & edit underlying parameters in the table below

Addressable Patient Funnel Cascade

Click any stage to expand parameters, values, and research provenance tags.

Horizon: Year 1 Launch View

The Core Multi-Year Insight: ATP vs ATP+WTU Decaying Curves

The widening gap over time represents the exhaustion of non-replenishing assets (savings, durables, loans) compared to annual income replenishment.

ATP Only ATP + WTU

Cohort Accounting Breakdown

Calendar Year volume sums active depletion states from each start-year cohort.

Cal. Year	Paying (n)	Revenue

Backend Funnel Data List & Parameter Inspector

Recheck the exact numbers powering the funnel cascade. You can inspect provenance or directly tweak any input here.

Funnel Stage	Mechanism / Formula	Research Baseline	Applied Value (Editable)	Resulting Pool (N)	Data Source & Provenance

Price Sensitivity & Elasticity Heatmap

Price ladder × treatment duration grid. Auto-highlights the distance between revenue-maximizing and access-maximizing points.

Point Elasticity

-

% patient change per 10% price change

Access Maximizing Point

-

Maximum cumulative patient reach

Revenue Maximizing Point

-

Commercial revenue peak

Annual Cost (THB)	1 Year	2 Years	3 Years	5 Years	Lifelong (9Y)

Revenue Max Access Max Extrapolated Cell (Outside PMR range)

Flexible Patient Program (FPP) Archetype Assessment

Compares all six archetypes against list price. The engine is re-run at the post-FPP effective price schedule (§5 step 8).

5-Year Planning Horizon

Archetype	Optimizes For	Y1 Afford %	Y5 Retention	Cum. Patients	Cum. Revenue	Net Price	Efficiency Metric*	Channel Executability

*Efficiency Metric = Patients gained per unit of revenue forgone vs baseline. Validation check: Flat discount maximizes Y1 penetration but fails retention over multi-year horizon.

Multi-Year Patient Retention Curve by Archetype

Shows how progressive tiered vs upfront vs flat discount retain patients over 5 years.

Model Parameters, Provenance Register & Audit Trail

Every parameter carries citation, vintage, and provenance tag. Overrides require mandatory rationale logging (§1.6).

Field	Category	Value	Citation / Source	Vintage	Provenance	Action

Primary Research (PMR) Behavioral Parameters from IQVIA Commission Locked to Research Defaults

Parameter ID	Parameter Name	Value (Q3)	Source Description	Vintage	Provenance

Timestamp	User	Parameter	Old Value	New Value	Mandatory Rationale

Commercial Strategy Playbook & Guided Profiles

Explore real-world commercial strategies. One-click apply any profile to the live dashboard or build your own custom scenario.

Profile A Baseline

Premium Private Self-Pay

Full list price, no discount program. Targets upper quintiles (Q4-Q5) and affluent private hospitals.

Price Model: 100% List Price

Program: None

Profile B High Access

Rapid Volume Uptake

Flat 25% FPP discount combined with active diagnosis screening. Maximizes Year 1 patient initiation.

Price Model: 25% Flat Discount

Diagnosis Rate: +15% Screening Push

Profile C Retention

Multi-Year Retention (FPP)

Progressive tiered discount (Y1: 15%, Y2: 25%, Y3+: 35%) specifically engineered to counteract asset depletion decay.

Program: Progressive Tiered

Y3+ Retention: High Multi-Year

Profile D Co-Funding

Public Co-Funding Bridge

Optimizes Layer B assistance funds (CAF, PhilHealth, MAIFIP) to subsidize patient out-of-pocket costs.

Market: PH Focused

Assistance Absorption: High Public Share

Side-by-Side Commercial Decision Comparison

Compare Active Scenario against Research Default or any saved scenario.

Compare Benchmark:

Commercial Metric	Benchmark Profile	Active Scenario	Absolute Difference	% Change